Zhuochuang Information Egg Market analyst Liu Hong
[introduction] laying hens did not make a good profit in April.DiamondslotmachinegamesThe enthusiasm of aquaculture units to go out of hurdles is enhanced.DiamondslotmachinegamesThe supply of eliminated chickens increased, while the downstream demand did not follow up enough, superimposed the negative impact of related products, and the price of eliminated chickens continued to bottom out during the month. According to the early breeding cycle and feeding mentality, the number of eliminated chickens in the future may still be at a high level in the first half of the year, and it is expected that the price of eliminated chickens may show a downward trend from May to June.
The price of knockout chickens continues to bottom.
In April, the price of eliminated chickens showed an obvious downward trend, and the average price of eliminated chickens in the country was 5.Diamondslotmachinegames.20 yuan / jin continues to decline to 4.Diamondslotmachinegames.57 yuan per jin, mainly due to the increase in the supply of eliminated chickens this month, but insufficient downstream demand. During the month, the price of eggs was maintained near the cost, the profit of breeding was poor, and the temperature gradually increased. Before and after Ching Ming Festival, there was one of the periods when the breeding units concentrated on the fence, the enthusiasm of the breeding units increased, and the supply of eliminated chickens increased within the month. While the demand side is still weak, farmers' markets and slaughtering enterprises generally purchase bargains, superimposed related products such as eggs, broilers and other prices are in the bottom stage, under the constraints of the pattern of supply exceeding demand, the price of eliminated chickens within the month is easy to fall but difficult to rise. As of April 29, the average price of knockout chickens was 4.82 yuan per jin, down 8.54% from the previous month and 22.26% from the same period last year.
Increase in the supply of eliminated chickens in April
According to the calculation of the feeding cycle and 501-day age of laying hens, the theoretical supply of eliminated hens is relatively limited this month, but because the breeding units are still profitable in March, the breeding units are hesitant to sell and delay Amoy, accounting for an increase of 0.05 percentage points over 450 days old compared with February. Therefore, the number of layers that can be eliminated in April is higher than the theoretical value. At the same time, the profit of laying hens in April is not ideal, and the breeding units lock in the breeding profit. For older laying hens and laying hens with low laying rate, the enthusiasm of laying hens is increased, and the supply of eliminated chickens is increased. As of April 30, the total number of columns in the month was 2.5748 million, an increase of 17.61% from the previous month and 27.81% from the same period last year.
The negative impact on demand is mainly manifested in the lack of boost during the Qingming Festival and May Day, the superimposition of the constraints of increased supply, the elimination of the chicken market from the seller's market to the buyer's market, and the low enthusiasm of the slaughterhouse to participate in the market. most of them produce according to order and start work, and the farmers' market is dominated by rigid demand, and the overall demand downstream is relatively weak, and the demand side is not beneficial to the market for the time being. At the same time, the prices of eggs and broilers are in the bottom stage, which also has a negative impact on the price of knockout chickens.
The expectation of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and there are still risks in the price of knockout chickens in the future.
According to the data analysis, the correlation coefficient between egg price and eliminated chicken price is 0.63, which has a moderate positive correlation. That is to say, when the price of eggs rises, the profit of breeding increases, the supply of breeding units decreases, and the price of eliminated chickens shows an upward trend, and vice versa. Therefore, the price of eliminated chickens is more obviously affected by egg prices, and the egg market in May-June is still expected to be negative. At the same time, affected by the seasonal characteristics of demand, both prices show a seasonal trend for most of the year, and the price of eliminated chickens is expected to fall seasonally from May to June.
Combined with the current age of 501 days, it is estimated that the chicken chicks filled in around January 2023 will enter the elimination period in May, and the supply is theoretically limited. However, considering that the supply exceeds the demand in the egg market from May to June, the market has the risk of falling, the profits of laying hens may not be ideal, and the rising temperature increases the difficulty of raising older layers, or stimulate breeding units to phase out appropriate-age layers ahead of schedule. It is expected that the actual number of chickens eliminated in May may be greater than the theoretical value, and the theoretical panning of chickens in June will continue to increase. The supply of eliminated chickens is still sufficient, and the price of chickens will be eliminated.
From the point of view of demand, the overall demand for eliminated chickens from May to June is weak, and the demand will decline as a whole. Although May Day has slightly led the demand of farmers' market, the range is also limited. In addition, related substitutes, the egg market in the second quarter still has more than expected supply, superimposed plum rainy season and other effects, demand follow-up is insufficient, prices still have the risk of going down. Therefore, the lack of bright spots in the market demand for eliminated chickens has a negative impact on the prices of eliminated chickens.
Generally speaking, the supply and demand in April is strong and weak, and the price of eliminated chickens is easy to fall but difficult to rise. The number of eliminated chickens in May-June may still be sufficient, while the demand is weak, and the market of eggs and broilers is weak. To a certain extent, the demand of some consumers for eliminated chickens is diverted. Under the contradiction that market supply exceeds demand, it is expected that there is still a downward risk in the prices of eliminated chickens in May-June. Specific market conditions pay attention to the changes in the listing of eliminated chickens.