News summary
Palm oil supplies are expected to resumemonsteramaarcade, the pressure level of 7600 yuan has not exceeded, and demand is expected to pick up but there is insufficient upward momentum. Soyoil's fundamentals are stronger than palm oil, demand has declined slightly, and overall operation is weak. Risk factors include palm oil production recovery that falls short of expectations and a rebound in overseas demand.
Newsletter text
[The recovery of supply in the palm oil market has attracted attention, and prices are facing upward pressure]
In terms of the spot market, the spot price of palm oil in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong rose slightly to 7950 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean oil was also bullish, reaching 8000 yuan/ton.
In the palm oil sector, the market observed that inventories were at a bottom confirmation state and supply was gradually recovering, which brought potential downward pressure on oil prices. Affected by fluctuations in U.S. soybean oil prices, palm oil prices continued to challenge the resistance level of 7600 yuan, but failed to achieve an effective breakthrough. The accumulation of inventories in the production area may put pressure on palm oil prices, and the recovery of supply is expected to be gradually transmitted to the domestic market by increasing import profits. Although demand from China and India is expected to increase, the easing of supply side remains a key factor affecting palm oil prices. Against the background of loosening supply and demand relations, the motivation for rising palm oil prices appears to be insufficient.
The soybean oil market was relatively stable, although the U.S. tariff increase on China's UCO did not materialize, and soybean oil prices experienced a slight adjustment. In southern China, the share of palm oil consumption has increased, which has led to a slight decline in the substitution of soybean oil. However, against the background of relatively flat spot prices, soybean oil still maintains a certain substitution cost advantage. Recently, soybean oil prices have been greatly affected by external market fluctuations, but overall they continue to fluctuate within specific ranges, and the overall trend is weak.
[Risk Warning] Investors should note that if palm oil production recovers less than expected, or overseas demand rebounds, it may have an impact on the market.