News summary
The supply of lithium carbonate has gradually increased, and the slowdown in demand growth has put pressure on prices; it is recommended to wait and see new orders and carry out value-preserving operations in a timely manner.
Newsletter text
[Jiangxi Yichun environmental protection inspection has little impact on lithium salt production, and the supply side is gradually releasing it.] With the progress of Yichun environmental protection inspection, the resumption of production of lithium salt plants and the increase in lithium production in salt lakes have gradually increased domestic output. At the same time, the import volume of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, providing supply to the domestic market.highrollerpokerStrong support. In addition, the accumulation of domestic warehouses also indicates the release of future supply. Despite this, the accumulation of domestic supplies has not yet had a significant impact on the market, and raw material prices still have support. [Consumption of new energy vehicles is expected to increase, but downstream production slows down in May] The Ministry of Commerce issued detailed implementation rules for the old-for-new vehicle policy, which indicates an optimistic outlook for the new energy vehicle consumer market. However, downstream production activity showed a slowdown in May, and the supply of lithium carbonate also increased in June. During the inventory removal stage, demand growth for lithium carbonate may be limited. [Supply and demand are balanced, lithium carbonate price fluctuations are limited] With the dual boost of domestic production and imports, growth on the supply side may exceed that on the demand side. In addition, the accumulation of inventories also puts pressure on lithium carbonate prices. Despite this, the moderate domestic macro environment and the potential positive impact of automobile consumption policies are expected to provide a certain degree of support for lithium carbonate prices. [Investors are mainly wait-and-see, option strategies and hedging suggestions] Faced with the current situation of the lithium carbonate market, new investment orders are recommended to remain wait-and-see. At the same time, investors holding 120000 call options on the July contract can consider continuing to hold them. When the price is right, the lithium salt factory can appropriately carry out sales and value-preserving operations. Downstream cathode material manufacturers can make corresponding purchases and hedging in the futures market. [Basis and Spread Trading Strategy] Under the current basis conditions, there is no obvious operating space during the buy and sell period. However, investors can pay attention to and moderately participate in spread trading between August and November contracts, and pay attention to anti-hedging opportunities between November and December.